More numbers

Hmmm, can you tell I've been a little preoccupied with the slide of the economy into the gutter?

Just an update to some numbers from last week:

Since Oct. 11, 2007, the Dow has now dropped 4603.17 points to 9,594.93 as of 1:42 p.m. CDT today. That brings the drop in value of the market since it's peak to 32.42% in just 360 days.

Almost as disheartening? In the week since I last posted numbers on this, it's dropped 1,019 points for a 9.6% loss in 7 days.


Gaming
In lighter news, I have hardly been gaming at all lately. Now starting my fourth week on my new work schedule, it's just hard to find time to play. I'm still cruising along on Worldwinner, since that's basically my second job, but "fun" gaming just doesn't happen. I get home from work, and then it's dinner time and time to get the kiddos ready for bed. By the time that nightly fight is over and they've quieted down and fallen asleep, it's usually 9:30, 10. Then I end up finally relaxing a little and spending some time with Kim, which is about the only quiet time we get together. And all of a sudden, it's 11:30 and I'm tired and ready for bed. So where does gaming even fit in with all of that?

I can't say I'm upset or even unhappy about it; that's just the way life is some times. I'm hoping that as time goes on and we all get more used to the realities of the new schedule, things will get a little easier and my free time becomes a little more free. That remains to be seen, though.

Horror in slow motion

I have to say, this whole economic collapse is one of the weirdest experiences in my life. I've been around and aware enough for many world-changing events, but they all seemed to share a quality of *SMACK* it happened, then watch the aftermath. The Challenger and Columbia, 9/11, Iraq I and II, previous collapses on Wall Street, the Berlin Wall...

Maybe I've just remembered them all as big single events moreso than the reality of the situations actually warrant, but certainly none of them seemed to me to have the kind of prolonged agony the last year has subjected us to. I first started hearing rumblings about the housing market and mortgage industry last summer. I started seeing it have a real impact on the economy around January. And now, the last 3 months I've seen it start wreaking real havoc around the world. I sat there this morning watching the Dow Jones average drop below 10,000 - the first time it's been down to four digits since 2004 - and just wondering when the bleeding is going to stop.

It really makes me wonder how people managed throughout the Cold War. At least with the economic stuff, we can be fairly certain that we'll come out on the other side. We may not know exactly when or how bad it may get, but eventually we'll get things revved up again and back on the right track. With the Cold War, there was just no such certainty, no light at the end of the tunnel, no guarantee that we were going to come out on top or that you wouldn't wake up to the roar of nuclear apocalypse rushing at you in the night. Just with the little tastes I've had in the last decade, I'm glad I didn't have to live with that kind of unresolved fear hanging over my head all the time.

King John?

When I found this here, I could not believe what I was seeing.





His quote about 35 seconds in:

I’m not saying this is the perfect answer. If I were dictator, which I always aspire to be, I would write it a little bit differently. I would increase the FDIC insured deposits and done some other things.

Ummmmm.... WTF???? Seriously??? He's not joking. He's not kidding. He's saying that with a straight face. This is what you get when you see the real John McCain.

Never fails to deliver a laugh

If you have the time to spare and don't mind laughing out loud (meaning - this might not be the best thing to read at work), check out the Fail Blog to see the idiocy and miscues of humanity at their funniest.


Kid stuff
Apparently, Jasmine counted to ELEVEN by herself this morning. How did this happen? She hasn't even counted to two, and now she's up to 11? Heck, Anisa's got a year and a half on her and is only counting to 8 consistently.

Anisa has finally grasped the concept of "Why?" recently. I've been waiting for this to happen, and it's such a huge leap in logic. It means she's finally connected the dots on cause and effect; she knows there's a reason things happen now, which is just awesome. Of course, it also means that most requests and statements are now followed by her asking, "Why? But why, daddy?", which adds a whole new level of discussion. At least I already know the 2 ways to answer that and end a conversation: "Because" and "Why not?"

We picked up some of the Wizard of Oz dolls the McDonalds has been selling recently, and they're a huge hit. Both girls have been playing with them all the time and insisting on taking them to bed with them.

Quick question: Is there a remedy out there for the post-waking-up grumpiness? Both girls are relentlessly grumpy for about an hour or so after they wake up in the mornings or after a nap. It's not fun.

One thing I love about the girls is that they're so into reading. They absolutely love sitting down with their books and reading stories. One thing I worried about going into this whole parenting thing was that having all the TV and video and computer stuff would make them not appreciated books at all. That worry has been completely unwarranted. It's something we'll have to keep encouraging as they get older, but there's definitely a solid foundation there for them to build on.

Pushed off the cliff

Serendipity is funny - I was talking to my mom last night a bit about the causes of our current economic troubles, and then opened NYTimes.com this morning to find a rather striking article discussing just that.

Very brief summary: A 2004 SEC ruling dramatically increased the amount of debt the Big Boys on Wall Street were allowed to carry. The house of cards that led up this certainly had some foundations built in the Clinton, Bush I and Reagan eras, but this decision basically tried to see if pyramid of pachyderms (to steal a line from Dumbo) could balance on top of that house. How bad was it?

"Over the following months and years, each of the firms would take advantage of the looser rules. At Bear Stearns, the leverage ratio — a measurement of how much the firm was borrowing compared to its total assets — rose sharply, to 33 to 1. In other words, for every dollar in equity, it had $33 of debt. The ratios at the other firms also rose significantly."

Man, if that same standard was applied to me, I could carry nearly $1.5 million in debt.... that sure would be fun for a couple of years, but wow is the hangover is going to suck when the bill collectors show up.

And it makes me all the more confident that we're on the right path now to know that Henry Paulson, the Treasury Secretary leading us down the bailout path, sat there in this SEC meeting and thought this was going to be a great idea and had no qualms about approving it. What, are we now trying to get the U.S. government to a 33-to-1 debt ratio?

Ugh. I'm not looking forward to the next 10 years at all, regardless of who's at the reins.

Blogging from the brink

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

This shows the historical milestones of the Dow Jones average. The all-time high:

Intra-day Actual:

14,198.10

Thursday, October 11, 2007

As of 2:42 p.m. today, according to the NYTimes.com feed, the Dow stood at 10,614. So in less than a YEAR, the average has dropped 3,584 points - or 25.24%....

That's just mind-boggling. Seriously, we've lost 25% of the value of our businesses in 50 weeks?? WTF?

A happy note? If this is similar to the Great Depression, it only took 22 years and World War II to pull the economy back to the previous levels the stock market had reached before the crash. Hmmm.... maybe that's NOT such a happy note.

Disturbing thought of the... week? month? #!%@$ century??

I tend to enjoy sports a lot. I also enjoy politics and intellectual insight into the many facets of the world. Rarely are these two portions of my brain engaged at the same time, but Gregg Easterbrook's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com has been doing so successfully for a long while now and is one of my most favoritest (yes, that's a word - in my world, at least :P ) reads of the week during football season. I may not agree with some of the things he says, but he at least makes me think about things a little more.

In his latest column, he put the recent economic turmoil and the government's response to it into terms that struck a chord with me. So I'm sharing it with you now:

Last week, TMQ asked why no one was paying attention to the fact that the national debt ceiling was quietly raised by $800 billion during the summer. Well, toss that column: The White House just asked the national debt ceiling be raised another $700 billion, for the proposed financial-sector bailout. If that happens, in 2008 alone, $1.5 trillion will have been added to the national debt: every penny borrowed from your children and their children. Stated in today's dollars, in 1979 the entire national debt was $1.5 trillion. George W. Bush and Congress have in a single year added an amount equal to the entire national debt one generation ago. And the year's not over!

It took the United States 209 years, from the founding of the republic till 1998, to compile the first $5 trillion in national debt. In the decade since, $6 trillion in debt has been added. This means the United States has borrowed more money in the past decade than in all our previous history combined. Almost all the borrowing has been under the direction of George W. Bush -- at this point Bush makes Kenneth Lay seem like a paragon of fiscal caution. Democrats deserve ample blame, too. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, Democratic leaders of the Senate and House, have never met a bailout they didn't like: Harry and Nancy just can't wait to spend your children's money. Six trillion dollars borrowed in a single decade and $1.5 trillion borrowed in 2008 alone. Charles Ponzi would be embarrassed.

If you ever needed more reason to feel sickened by our current state of affairs, there it is. I'm going to go cry while looking at my 401k statement again now.

Grown-ups getting a play date

It seems like it has been an eternity since I was able to go to a concert. But come November, that streak will be at an end!

I'll be attending a show for Rachael Yamagata as part of the Hotel Cafe Tour at Blueberry Hill in St. Louis on Nov. 8. I'm so freakin' excited!! She's one of my absolute favorite artists and the fact that I get to actually take a day to do some grown-up stuff without the kids makes it that much better. An added bonus is that Alice Russell is also scheduled to perform that night. From what I've heard of her singing with Quantic and the samples of her solo material I've stumbled across, she's someone high on my list of music to add to the collection - and now I get to see her live!

Since the move to Missouri, the extent of events we've been able to manage that didn't include the kiddos was catching the Simpsons movie at the theater in August... of 2007! I absolutely love being a dad, but sometimes I really miss the freedom of not having kids to worry about and plan around. A big thanks to Kim's friend Jenni for stepping up to watch the kids overnight that night. We owe her big time!! :)


Kid stuff
Man, the kids just keep growing up faster and faster. Anisa has started to pick up the concept of reading and words. She's started pointing to a word and asking, "What's that word say?" and even started to recognize certain words. Not really reading them, but if you point to "cat" and ask her what word it is, she knows.

Kim has started Anisa on the path of juvenile humor already. Momma taught her the joke: "Guess what?" "Chicken butt!" and Anisa has gone on to improvise so that the answer can be "* butt!" - "Anisa butt!" "Xanadu butt!" and my personal favorite, "Computer butt!" I can't wait until she's in preschool next year and we get a call from the teacher about this joke being abused during class.

Jasmine, meanwhile, is doing her best to catch up to her sister. She's putting together sentences and is really getting a grasp on language. She knows pretty much all her basic colors now and is starting to learn her numbers and letters. I'm amazed at how much of a help having big sister around is. When they play in the bathtub or with the fridge magnets, Anisa will ask her to get a certain letter or certain color and help her get it right. It's sooo cool to see.

Almost as cool as seeing how their cooperative play has blossomed in the last couple of months. For a long time, they just played side by side - together, but not really playing with each other. Now, it's rare to see them playing alone. Anisa has been fixated on Jasmine being her "sweetie" lately. "Hey sweetie - let's play bookstore!" "Hey dad, that's my sweetie" "Sweetie needs a new pull-up. Stinky butt!!"

Go Cowboys!!

Well, this weekend was totally awesome for those good ol' Wyoming Cowboys. They won 44-0! Over arch-rival and No. 14 BYU!! How awesome is that?

Oh? What was that? I'm dyslexic? BYU actually rang up 44 points, not the 'Pokes?? Ummm... crap. Well, then, nevermind. That bucking flows (get dyslexic on the first letters of those words to truly enjoy my sentiments on the subject).

At least the Denver Donkeys managed not to blow that game against the Saints yesterday...

My take on the economy

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/09/a-ripe-moment.html

I was emailed this article today and read it with some interest. There's some good points in there, but a lot that I think is simply wrong. I initially responded directly to the email, but I think it was a reasonably good response, so I figured I'd toss it up on here as well. And so, without further babbling, here it is:

Meh. He far overstates the case.

Did Republicans contribute to the current problems? Absolutely. Their insistence on deregulation and slavish devotion to extreme free market practices led to a lot of this. However, much of the foundation was set during the Clinton administration, albeit with a Republican-controlled Congress. Certainly, of the two parties, the ones to shoulder more of the blame are the Republicans, but the Democrats aren't guilt-free by any means.

The thing is, this isn't a political thing. The government isn't the cause of all this. Yes, they should have been keeping a close eye on things and regulating the housing/mortgage industry a bit more. Bu that's like saying it's the fault of the police when a crazy man goes on a rampage and kills 30 people. Had they watched him and regulated him, he probably wouldn't have killed as many if any people - but are the cops to blame, or the person behind the trigger?

When you're looking at people to blame for this whole thing, the focus needs to be squarely on the bankers and economists directly involved. They got greedy. They saw this opportunity to make a ton of money off of poor people by giving them risky, overpriced mortgages (that the bankers pretty much knew they couldn't afford and knew that their customers were financially naive enough to not realize just how risky it was), the banks made a fat profit and then figured the could eventually foreclose, sell the house and start over again for some more fat profits for little work. On top of that, they saw that the risk itself was fairly minimal because you've got Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sitting at the bottom of the mountain with government-secured financing to back them up. There's no way THAT's going to fail, right??

If they had been able to stay just a *little* greedy, we'd have been fine. Yes, some poor folks would have ended up getting screwed, but not that many. The real problem was that those small fat profits weren't enough. So every year, the banks lowered their standards a little more... exposed themselves to a little more risk... snared even more people with risky loans... and the whole time were telling themselves, "Yeah, it's risky... but it hasn't failed yet. And not everyone can be doing as much risk-taking as we are, right?" And then it turned into almost a competition of "Which bank can have the largest portfolio of risky loans?"

And had it stayed there, we still might have been okay. But then the economists and the stock brokers got involved.They saw the fat profits on these loans and wanted their piece of the greed pie. So buying and selling of mortgages become a trendy way to make money. Investing in these risky lenders became the thing to do. And the whole time, the economists out there are telling us that this is a good thing, that profits are at record highs and that we should all be happy and comfortable, never taking the time to tell us that all of this is a house of cards built on the back of people that can't afford to keep buying more cards to build with.

Now, where in all that do you see Republicans or Democrats? Other than the fact that the bankers involved have some sort of personal politics, you don't see the government involved at all. Granted, that's part of the problem as I mentioned already - 10 years ago, regulators should have seen this starting and said, "Enough is enough. Stop it, you wascawwy wabbits!", but they didn't. So while I can understand the desire to blame politicians, especially Republicans as we're trying to find ways to ensure we don't suffer another 4 years of the vomit-inducing bullshit we've dealt with so far this century, it's simply incorrect to do so.